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Ca_Vermonster's picture
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Location: San Diego, CA
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"Success Rates"

Curious on the expert opinions out there.  I am looking at success rates in certain OTC areas for elk, and low to no PP deer hunts, and the results bring up something I have always wondered. If you take into account meat, trophy, party hunters, etc., what would success rates be if broken down?  In other words, is there much of a statistical impact on the success rates if trophy hunters hold out, or meat hunters shoot any legal animal?

Let's look at a highly publicly hunted area, take 62 for example.  Lots of hunters, good chunk of them are probably "meat" hunters. The last few years, it's hovered around 50% for deer, give or take.  Now, of the people who did not fill a tag, how many of them do you think could have had deer, but chose rather to eat the tag instead of shooting a forky or something else?  I figure there are just a few reasons someone does not fill a tag, such as:

1) Didn't get out of truck

2) Put in some effort, but didn't see a legal deer

2) Saw a legal deer, but missed the shot

4) Saw a legal deer, but held out for something bigger that never came along.

I know it can't be accurately determined, but just curious what you all think.  If you have a hunter who is willing to put boots on the ground, willing to take any legal animal, and can make a shot, what would their "success" be in an area like this?  How much do the road hunters, trophy hunters, etc., draw down the success rate?

Interesting to ponder.  There were 1369 deer hunters there in 2010.  758 got deer, for a 55% success.  Of the 600 that didn't get one, where do they fall? Interesting to ponder. 

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Location: Colorado
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I think most of those who

I think most of those who didn't get a deer either didn't have a shot at one they saw, or never saw one.

Only a pure trophy hunter would turn down a good shot at one.

Ca_Vermonster's picture
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I understand that, but I am

I understand that, but I am curious as to a public unit like this, are the majority of hunters going to be meat hunters, or are there a good chunk of them that consider themselves trophy hunters.  I figure trophy hunters would be targeting other areas with high point draws, the "trophy" units, but they don't always draw those.  So if they "settle" for a public unit like this with their second choice, do they still hold out for only trophies?

So, out of 1400 hunters, say 200 didn't get a deer, but saw them and passed or missed shots.  That leaves 1200 that got those 750ish deer, making the succes rate for those guys that took anything and made their shot, at over 60%........

Do I make sense???? lol

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Location: Colorado
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Would that make your hunt

Would that make your hunt seem better?

A true trophy hunter probably wouldn't hunt a unit without trophy's. I think what you mostly have is someone wanting a trophy, but still wants to fill the freezer.

Personally, I only want to fill the freezer, so you better hope they're not all not like me.

Striker's picture
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Location: Kuna, ID
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Deer

My .02 cents on this is: this area has a great success rate. Now most of these bucks are not trophy qaulity but it does say something about the unit. The deer population must be healthy in that unit to be so high success. Access could also be attributed to higher success rates but over all if your looking for meat and willing to take anything, which most of the hunters that hunt that unit probably do, it could be a good unit for you. I think your odds may be a little higher then the rest because your willing to put in the work. I bet 1/4 maybe more of those kills were taken by easy going hunters not far off the road or their ATVs. Remember little bucks are dumb. They are not scared of roads, ATV, and hunters like the wise old bucks out there that get big. They will be found in the easy access areas and few of them will grow up. I've killed several little bucks within 100 yards of a road and you can see people do it every year. But once again it's rare to see a big buck taken that close to the road.

Ca_Vermonster's picture
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Good thoughts, thanks. I

Good thoughts, thanks. I would be happy with anything, but would like to maybe see a 3 point or better.  Tempting if a fork walks out right away though, all I will see is jerky and tenderloins..... Wink

Retired2hunt's picture
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And personally I think that

And personally I think that is the way to go about your hunt.  I would love to have a trophy to hang on the wall but I'd rather be discussing my shot and what I'm going to do with those tenderloins, backstraps, etc.... 

As for GMU 62 - the 2012 data reflects 991 hunters for the rifle seasons combined with a success rate of 56%.  It is a large gmu and I think most of the hunters there would be like you and me - would love to shoot a trophy but will shoot the first legal animal. 

I think the real trophy only hunters know where these bucks are at based on years of hunting a specific area or the amount of pre-season scounting completed.  And they find these animals in any gmu - those that require pp's and even those with zero pp's.  GMU 62 probably has some nice trophy deer based on the size and location of the gmu but I would guess the trophy only hunters using that unit probably make up only 10% or less of the hunters.

But then what do I know as I have only harvested a doe.  I saw a nice trophy last year within 20 yards... but I didn't have the right tag so I could pull the trigger on it!

Good luck whatever you do!

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Location: Colorado
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Make sure it has at least 5"

Make sure it has at least 5". ;)

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Joined: 10/25/2011
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I would agree that most of

I would agree that most of the unsuccessfulhunters were because they either didn't see any animals or they missed their shot. I would guess very, very few percentage points are unsuccessful because they were holding out for a bigger deer.

I have been hiking all over the forest the last couple years looking for elk and haven't seen one yet. I sure won't be holding out for a big bull, but I do know exactly where the mount would go if I got one!

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I wouldn't try to read too

I wouldn't try to read too much into the statistics collected and published by CPW. I would assume a valid statistical sampling has a cross section of all hunters that hunted (or didn't for whatever reason) the unit from trophy hunters to meat hunters to lazy drunk bums who never leave camp. That said, any success rate of 50% or greater gives everyone a pretty decent opportunity to find and harvest an animal. In my experience, if you are willing to work and hunt both smart and hard, your success rates will be much higher than the published stats. If Quinton is going to hunt with you, then I would assume your odds of success go up significantly too. Go with his recommendations and have a great hunt! Then post up the pics and story for the rest of us to enjoy as well.

Ca_Vermonster's picture
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Thanks, that's what I was

Thanks, that's what I was sort of getting at.  Don't really expect Quinton to tag along necessarily (Cool if he did), but he said he'd point me in the right direction.  That alone is great!

BTW, I will give up his spots for the right price after my hunt, but don't tell him I said that..... Wink

 

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