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Aaron77's picture
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Posts: 45
Pref pts and draw success

So, I am gradually figuring out the drawing system and blending my deer and elk choices to land my son and I in the same season/same location etc.  Anyway, my question is this, is the draw success listed on the CPW calculated only with those applicants who met the min. pref pt for that season.

For instance, I'd like to get Unit 28 4R for muley. This requires 1 pref pt. min. And the draw success rate is 41%. So I am assuming that means that even with the min pref pt. , that is your draw chance. It must be.

Is there a way to apply that ensures you each get tags in the same season. For instance, if we both used our pts to apply for fourth rifle, but if either didn't get it, we would get our second choice, 3rd rifle? Thanks for any help. I've got 3 sons growing up, and I'm trying to have a strategy building pts. looking to the future.

 

exbiologist's picture
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Joined: 09/19/2008
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Absolutely not

The draw summary merely divides tags by first choice applicants. No factoring in residency or points. You need to use the hunt recap for a true estimate of minimum point draw odds. Use the draw summary to show the tag allotment.  

When trying to figure true draw odds with minimum subtract keep subtracting points above the minimum until you hit a point value with more applicants than tags.

So you can just do a group app to guarantee you all get the same tag

exbiologist's picture
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28 4th deer

True resident draw odds with one point for DM018O4R:   155 tags for residents, which is more than 65%, but anyway, 67 tags were taken by guys with 2 or more points, leaving 88 licenses for 127 1 point applicants. So your odds are actually better 69%

Aaron77's picture
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Joined: 08/19/2011
Posts: 45
aha

Boy, was that ever helpful. Thanks!

 

So, does this mean that someone with more than the minimum pts is virtually assured of drawing, (for instance, the guys using 2+ points in the 0184R example)or is it that their draw is weighted the more pts. they have?

exbiologist's picture
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sort of

Not virtually assured, are absolutely assured, assuming the applicant numbers don't change and the quotas don't change.  Weighted points are only for moose, sheep and goats.  Hybrid draws are only for units requiring 10 or more resident points.

 

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Location: Colorado
Joined: 07/13/2011
Posts: 880
The DOW will tell you only

The DOW will tell you only guarantee is OTC. Which of course isn't for deer. Read between the lines.  Huh?

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