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Umpqua Hunter's picture
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That can happen....

hawkeye270 wrote:

You're smart to try and spread those tags out over a couple years. My fall has been crazy and it puts a ton of pressure on you... way more than if you could just focus on one really good tag. 

Hawkeye:  I totally get where you are coming from, it does make for a tough fall.  That's what happened to my last year...too many tags....so I had to turn the 201 archery elk tag back in.  When I draw a premium tag I'd like to be able to give it two weeks for to come early, scout a few days, and hunt.

 

Umpqua Hunter's picture
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A Statistical Analysis...

I am thinking of applying for Unit 61 in Colorado next year, cause I would for sure lock up an elk tag, and I would not have to worry about drawing two tags the same year. On the other hand, I REALLY want my name in the hat in Arizona and Utah since those are my preferred tags.

I am thinking about applying in multiple states, but I only want one elk tag...not two.   Applying for multiple tags does come with the risk of drawing multiple tags, but how much risk? 

Since a lot of guys are faced with similar situations when applying for multiple hunts, I thought I'd put my example on here.  Maybe the math would be helpful in planning your own hunts.

I WANT AT LEAST ONE TAG:

Here are my expected odds in the states I have built elk points for.  

Wyoming (the unit is a secret...shhhh) = 15% estimated draw odds

Arizona (Unit 10 archery) = 20% estimated draw odds

Utah (San Juan early rifle) = 17% estimated draw odds

Colorado (Unit 201 archery) = 33% estimated draw odds

If I applied in all of the above states, what are my chances to get a tag?

To determine the odds of securing a tag, you ADD THE STATISTICAL ODDS of each individual hunt.  In my example....15% + 20% + 17% + 33% = 85%.  So I have a 85% chance I will draw one of those elk tags.

(Now what if I had a different example....and when I added the odds up, it came out to 185%?  Since that is nearly 200% that means I would likely draw TWO tags!...if it was 300%, three tags....and so on)

I DON'T WANT TWO TAGS:

But I will risk drawing two tags.  To determine the odds of drawing two tags, you MULTIPLY THE INDIVIDUAL ODDS...for example:

Drawing WY & AZ is 15% x 20% = 0.15 x 0.20 = 0.03 = 3% (hunt both hunts)

Since I will know the Wyoming draw results before the Utah and Colorado applications are due, I wouldn't end up with a Wyoming tag along with a Colorado or Utah tag.  But If I didn't a get Wyoming tag I could end up with the following senarios:

Drawing AZ & UT = 20% x 17% = 0.20 x 0.17 = 0.034 = 3.4% (hunt both hunts)

Drawing AZ & CO = 20% x 33% = 0.20 x 0.33 = 0.066 = 6.6% (return CO tag)

Drawing UT & CO = 17% x 33% = 0.17 x 0.33 = 0.056 = 5.6% (return CO tag)

The odds of getting two tags is:

3.4% + 6.6% + 5.6% = 15.6% (so about a 1 in 6 chance I end up with two tags)

But if I draw Utah or Arizona, I'd return the Colorado tag, and eat the tag fee to reinstate my points.  Therefore, I only have a maximum of a 3.4% chance I would have two tags where I would hunt both tags.

My odds of having to return the Colorado tag, and eat the price of the tag would be 6.6% + 5.6% = 12.2%

I REALLY DON'T WANT THREE TAGS!!!!:

The odds of getting three tags, can happen, but the odds start getting way out there in my example.  Again MULTIPLY THE INDIVIDUAL ODDS:

Drawing AZ & UT & CO = 20% x 17% x 33% = 0.20 X 0.17 X 0.33 = 0.011 = 1.1%  

It could happen....but its quite a long shot!

TO SUMMARIZE:

1)  I have an 85% chance to get one of those tags!  Applause

2)  I have a 3.4% (1:29) chance I would go on two elk hunts.  

3)  I have a 12.1% (1:8) chance I would turn a Colorado tag back in, and eat the price of the tag.

4)  I have about a 1.1% chance (1:90) chance to get three tags, but I would return Colorado to have my points reinstated.  ::help1

I think I can live with those odds.   Big smile

 

P.S.  To further complicate things, I always throw my name in the hat for the long shot tags....like sheep... Big smile...but I'll cross that bridge when I get to it...lol

 

 

 

Critter's picture
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I actually believe that you

I actually believe that you chances of drawing a elk tag in Colorado are a lot better than you are looking at.  What I would do is put in for Colorado and then put in for just points in the other states.  With Utah and Arizona working on bonus points you either need the maximum out of everyone or none.  I know I played that game for years to draw my Book Cliff elk tag and right now I am doing in for  a muzzle loader deer tag. 

 I am sure that you have looked at it but just in case you haven't here is a link to the Colorado statistics page  where you can check the points required and also look at what it took to draw that tag this year.

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Hey Critter

Critter wrote:

I actually believe that you chances of drawing a elk tag in Colorado are a lot better than you are looking at.  What I would do is put in for Colorado and then put in for just points in the other states.  With Utah and Arizona working on bonus points you either need the maximum out of everyone or none.  I know I played that game for years to draw my Book Cliff elk tag and right now I am doing in for  a muzzle loader deer tag. 

 

Hey Critter:  I try to strategize to draw one really great tag each fall.  I really don't want to wait 2-3 years for a tag, then move on to the next one.  From what I have seen in Colorado, with 19 points last year (20 next year) there two other non-resident applicants are at my point level.  We are applying for one one lonely non-resident Unit 201 archery tag.  So with me in the mix, that is 1 in 3 odds or 33%.  Of course if I put in for Unit 61 muzzleloader, I should be a point ahead of everyone and have a guaranteed tag.  I'm still weighing the option to go for 61.

In Utah from what I understand, I am competing with 5 others (6 total applicants) for the one tag issued for non-residents for the San Juan...so the odds are 16.6%, plus a very very slight chance to draw a random draw tags.  

Like you mentioned, in the top Arizona units, if you are not in the max point draw, you won't get a tag, since the 10% non-resident quota is usually filled in the 20% max point pass drawing in the best units.  This year I should be in the max pool in Unit 10 and have about a 20% shot in the max point pass drawing.

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You will find in Utah if

You will find in Utah if there is only one tag issued then even with max points you are not guaranteed the tag even if you are the only one with the max number of points.  I have fought that fight.  I believe that there has to be at least 4 tags available before they start to split the draw for the max point holders and the rest of the bunch. 

That is why I was saying to try the best tag in Colorado that you want and then just put in for a bonus point in the other states and cross your fingers. 

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The San Juan

Hey Critter:  I've been watching the Utah draw for about 20 years now and the way I understand Utah's max point system is that 50% of the tags go into the max point pool (but not more then 50%).  If there are 2 tags, 1 tag goes in.  If there are 3 tags, 1 tag goes in (because 2 would be more then 50%).  If there are 4 tags, 2 tags are in the max point pool, and so on.... You are right if there is only 1 non-resident tag, no tags will go in the max pool.  I'm 99% certain this is how it works.

I think maybe the misunderstanding here is thinking that Utah's early San Juan hunt has only one non resident tag, when actually it has at least one max point tag each year.  This hunt typically has 3 or 4 non-resident tags each year.  When it has 3 tags there is one tag in the max pool.  When it has 4 tags, there are 2 tags in the max point pool.  There are six applicants vying for the for the max point tag(s) for that hunt.  That hunt is probably one of the top five draw elk tags in the US right now, so I certainly would want to be in the running for that tag each year while its hot.

As far as Arizona, the archery season in 2012 should have the best dates that it has had since 2007.  Besides that, the moon will be nearly dark for most of the hunt.  It should be an incredible year for archery, as long as the state gets moisture.

If I only for apply for Colorado, for my favorite tag, that would be Unit 201 archery.  The way things currently stand, I could apply for up to 3 years to draw that tag.  Now, if only three new applicants jump in (such as from the rifle or muzzleloader hunt or guys who have been applying for points only) you have 6 guys competing for the single tag there, and my odds are 1 in 6, or the same as Utah.  That's why I am looking into other strategies to lock up a tag for next year.

With my goal being to get a quality tag each year, I tend to feel more comfortable either going for either a "guaranteed" tag, and if that's not possible, working a few different angles, without over extending myself.  It's worked well for me the past 25 years.  I've been blessed with 3 sheep tags, 3 shiras moose tags, 1 mountain goat tag, and a number of quality elk, deer and antelope tags.

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California does something

California does something similar to what you say Utah does.  A pre-determined number of tags goes towards max points, and the rest go into the random draw.  So, technically, everyone has at least some chance to draw a tag, regardless of how many points they have.

By the way, you are talking about your odds.  Just don't end up like that guy in Oregon, who drew all 4 of the premium tags this year.  He got a deer and elk, but also pulled out a mountain goat and a bighorn sheep tag.  The odds of doing that were estimated around 108,000, give or take.

Come to think of it, it's about time for an update on how that guy's hunts are going.....

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Ca_Vermonster:  That's

Ca_Vermonster:  That's totally crazy...ha ha.  Poor guy, but I guess someone's got to do it....lol  You always run that risk I guess if you have a bunch of apps in the proverbial "hat".  I've been building points for so long, I am in the running for a number of tags, and gotta be aware of that kind of thing happening.  The worst part would be that it would be hard to devote the time to any one hunt and enjoy it well.  I guess you would just have to prioritize...sheep first...goat second...then elk or deer.  Maybe even walk away from one.

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think about 2013?

In the bowsite forum, some were complaining that the 2013 muzzie season would occur during the last week of the archery season.  Most of the time the rut is well underway by that time.  You might want to hold on to your points for one more year.

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Great screen name...lol

cantgetdrawn:  I love your screen name...but I certainly hope that it's not true!  Lol

In Colorado for 2012, I understand the archery dates are August 28-September 23 and the muzzleloader dates are September 8-16.  The muzzleloader dates are pretty early, but as EXBIO mentioned, the high bull cow ratio could make that really not a factor, and I think he may very well be right.  The moon will also be pretty dark September 11-19.  I really don't like hunting elk on a full moon, I'm not sure what others experience is with that.

In 2013, I think you are right, I believe the Colorado archery dates will be August 24-September 22 and the muzzleloader dates are September 14-22, so the muzzleloader will be the last week of the archery season.  The other problem that year is the moon is gonna be bright September 14-24, so anyone hunting muzzleloader that year will be hunting around a full moon.  I think I'm gonna burn my Arizona antelope points that year (2013) and scout the same unit for archery elk for the following year (2014).

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