It's between 411 and 52.  Deer herd isn't great, about half the density of the North Grand Mesa herd, and the Uncompahgre herd.  Elk herd is strong and growing.  The elk is OTC in archery, 2nd and 3rd, just likein 62.  Easier to draw a deer tag too, I think.  Third rifle is about 57% chance of drawing with 1 point.  2nd rifle is gauranteed.

Rifle hunt if you're trying to actually kill something.

But, I'd want a hellofa lot more information about the ranch before I decide that that's where I want to hunt.  How big is it?  Where exactly is it?  Are the elk there year round?  Deer too.  Any crops?  What's the cover like?  Who else is going to be hunting it?  Etc, etc.  Private land does not always mean better hunting, and often times people feel like they are stuck with a limited amount of ground, when they really need to be hunting somewhere else. 

The only reference I even have to Cedaredge is that one of my high school classmates lived there for several years.  Unfortunately, he is not much of a hunter, so I don't think he would be much help for this conversation.  

As usual, Ex nailed it.  If you really want a buck deer tag in your pocket, the safer bet is either 411 or 52.  Even though you still have 10 months to make a decision, I would still try to find out as much as possible about the private ranch.  Has your friend hunted that ranch before?  Would the ranch owners be at least pointing you in the right direction for getting animals?  I think direct access to someone with years of on the ground hunting knowledge of an area can be invaluable, especially if you do not have the opportunity gain any first-hand knowledge yourself prior to season.  

Good luck with your decision and keep us posted.  

I was curious what ranch you are refering to.I live just south of Cedaredge.good hunting in 411 and 52 it is just a little thick.I can point you in the right direction if you need any help.