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expatriate's picture
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Let me put it to you another way.

Another reason I question your motivation and credibility is because you say you were an intelligence analyst. As such, you should understand the concept of studying the status and distribution of an enemy's forces, past behaviors, doctrine, etc, to predict future behavior. As a metaphor, in this case you have satellite photos of his forces, communication intercepts verifying the situation, humint on the ground saying what the forces are doing, etc. You also have reports from the front gained from troops in contact.

And yet you're willing to ignore every indicator on the planet because Baghdad Bob says the Americans are nowhere near Baghdad.

If you're an indicator of the level of analysis our intel people use, it's no wonder we got the WMD assessment wrong in Iraq.

SoCoKHntr's picture
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expatriate wrote:
Let me put it to you another way.

Another reason I question your motivation and credibility is because you say you were an intelligence analyst. As such, you should understand the concept of studying the status and distribution of an enemy's forces, past behaviors, doctrine, etc, to predict future behavior. As a metaphor, in this case you have satellite photos of his forces, communication intercepts verifying the situation, humint on the ground saying what the forces are doing, etc. You also have reports from the front gained from troops in contact.

And yet you're willing to ignore every indicator on the planet because Baghdad Bob says the Americans are nowhere near Baghdad.

If you're an indicator of the level of analysis our intel people use, it's no wonder we got the WMD assessment wrong in Iraq.

And you remind me of Cliff Claven only in a supply uniform instead of a mail one. Same "I know and have studied everything" attitude. Have another beer cliff.

expatriate's picture
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Again -- a misplaced analogy. Cliff's information was generally ridiculously flawed and absolutely useless -- sort of like most of the stuff you've cut and pasted.

And since when did I say I was a supply guy?

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Just saw another series of 3 interviews given today in Florida. NO ONE gives interviews 3 days before, one gaff and you're down 3 in the polls. The guy is uncanny, no drama Obama. I think the idea was to get more national exposure answering substantively on the issues, juxtaposed with McCain/Palin's shouting and attacking it only comes off being more reasuring.

Among the interesting bits, why he doesn't criticize Republican ideology, only Bush / McCain leadership. ... He thinks Repubs are basicaly good and well intentioned people who have been mislead for 8 years. Wants them on board for the change. About socialism / redistribution,,, Teddy Rosevelt (John McCain's hero) began the idea of progressive income tax and it's still a good idea, I"m paraphrasing. Returning to the levels of Clinton isn't exactly socialism, we did have the largest surplus in history, we were at peace, and the respected around the world.

Gallup has an interesting poll on the subject.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111655/Americans-Split-Redistributing-Wealth-...
Looks like because the issue is about evenly split as is the electorate we should only take all the money from Republicans and give it to liberals and people of color, darker people get more, especially mom's who drive Cadilacs and buy vodka.

Off topic but I can't help it. Inteligence especially CIA did get WMD right on Iraq, Bush cooked the books and lied, oughta spend the rest of his days not only in jail but a European jail.

Election polls themselves seem to be trending back up, happens every time Obama is on TV. Zogby has one 10 points different than everyone else, guess you can believe whatever you want.

Three Days, but the big day is 1/20/09

bitmasher's picture
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Infomercials worked real well for Ross Perot.

expatriate's picture
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What nobody's saying is that the video apparently bombed. There was no bounce in the polls whatsoever, and it appeared to have no effect at all. If it had been in the least bit successful, the media would be crowing about it. 33.6 million people watched it, but it apparently didn't convince anybody of anything -- that's a bomb in the marketing world.

I think that after all the stuff we've had to listen to for the past few months, taking away a half hour of prime time TV to worship himself was just plain annoying.

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I didn't watch Perot's infomercials, but I do know that he did better than any other 3d party candidate in quite a while.

It's hard to tell what has caused the slight bump to Obama's poll numbers. The polls yesterday were the first since the infomercial and they did show a slight strengthening, today's show more. Ordinarily and for the past week there is a tightening as we approach Tuesday, for some reason that seems to have stopped and headed in the other direction.

An unknown is how early voting is affecting pollsters. If someone has already voted then models of past patterns are no longer relevant. Throughout the election it has been hard to determine what percentage of newly registered voters will turn out. I suspect probable voter algorithms have changed. Also the Republican voter suppression effort seems to not be working as well as anticipated. Caging and purges have for the most part been deflected. It's also thought that stealing a percentage point in key states won't be enough. Can't wait for some sort of fair elections and universal registration laws.

expatriate's picture
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You need to turn the paper over, Civet...that "bump" is more erosion in Obama's numbers. McCain's been gaining all week, despite the worship video.

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